Early county review

CURRENT VERDICT: early returns look VERY solidly pro-Trump. It’s all but over already. Note that we need to see OFFICIAL RETURNS from the counties confirming the statistical trends before anything can be called.

Quote of the Day: You’re not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes. – Nate Silver, 538


Broward County (M=67)

2016:

  • 1,179,189 registered
  • 822,837 cast
  • 71.8 percent turnout
2020:
  • 1,267,187 registered (+7.5%)
  • 954,442 cast (+15.9%)
  • 75.32 percent turnout
Reports: 
  • Biden is at 75.1% with 10 percent reported.
  • Biden running 1.2 percent behind Hillary so far.
  • FL all voting: Rs +56,009. Broward, election day only: Ds up 2300, Palm Beach, election day only: Rs +12,000 (!)
  • Trump seriously overperforming in Miami-Dade, up 4.4 percent vs 2016. FL r/d: Rs +92,692 Rs +14,000 in  . . . PALM BEACH on election day.
  • There are only four blue counties on election day. One is D by only 14 votes, one by 48 votes, one by  1070 votes, and Broward by 3,294. We are 4,426 votes from having every FL county red today.
  • At noon, Trump ALREADY has more votes in Broward County than he did in 2016: 204,368 to 193,658. 
  • As of 1 PM, more votes had been cast in FL than were cast in 2016, 9,967,361 to 9,420,039. Donald Trump currently has an estimated lead of 116,422 which exceeds his 2016 winning margin of 113,000.
  • “Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I’d just better go and play some FIFA or something.” – Nate Silver
  • Voter enthusiasm has been very underwhelming here in Broward County. Turnout looked low on the second to last day of early voting when I went.”
  • CNN just said Biden campaign is making an extra effort to get voters to the polls in South Florida, and that FL, NC, and GA are their main challenges.
  • This Nate Silver thread has to be read to be believed. Someone, somewhere, is going to be shocked.

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

Reports:

  • Trump picked up 3.05% in early votes vis-a-vis 2016.
Philadelphia County (M=83)

Wayne County (M=67)

Hennepin County (M=62)

Milwaukee County (M=67)



Four more years

It increasingly appears the voters have bought the USA four more years to get things straight before the centrifugal forces begin to dismantle the societal structures:

Blue Americans cannot bear thought of four more years of Trump, his desecration of the values that made America a beacon to the world, his bullying and lies, his undermining of the norms and institutions that make America work, his contempt for European allies, and his kowtowing to foreign dictators. They fear that Trump will use false claims of election fraud and the post-election social unrest to engineer a military coup, in which he would set himself up as dictator, and abolish free press and American democracy.

Red Americans fear a Biden administration that will open borders to massive immigration, encourage looting and property destruction by BLM and antifa rioters, take away their guns, increase their taxes, and end the oil and gas industry in America. Many see Biden as the senile figurehead for the global cabal of Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and child-sex predators that include prominent Democrats, Hollywood elites, and deep state allies, whose aim is to establish an unelected “liberal dictatorship” that would abolish freedom of speech and American democracy.

Each side sees the world in Manichean terms and increasingly endorses violence as the necessary means to prevent the other side from staying in, or coming to power. As a result, we are in an extremely fragile state, which in technical terms is known as the revolutionary situation.

What will happen on November 3? One possibility is that one side wins by a landslide and the other accepts it. This is what the generals fervently hope for. This would avoid a civil war, at least for a time. The problem is that neither side has shown any willingness or understanding to solve the structural problems that have brought about the current revolutionary situation. And it takes years to reverse the negative structural-demographic trends, even once the necessary reforms are implemented. So we simply kick the problem forward to 2024.

But Peter Turchin is right. A Trumpslide doesn’t solve anything, it simply gives Americans a little more time to get serious about addressing the sickness at the heart of the US empire before it is too late. 

Of course, it could be worse. It could be a LOT worse. This dementia-addled guy might have won.

Joe Biden introduces his granddaughter by saying, “This is my son, Beau Biden, who a lot of you helped elect to the Senate in Delaware. This is…this is my granddaughter, Natalie. No wait, no wait. We got the wrong one.”

Beau Biden died in 2015. He never even ran for the Senate.


Mailvox: big turnout in MO

 A Missouri reader emails about his voting experience:

I showed up at my local Catholic church to vote at 0620. It’s now 0635, and I just found the end of the line. It wraps all the way around the parking lot, which has no parking available. The line is 10x longer than four years ago. 

That’s not an exaggeration to encourage your readers, it’s just fact. 

This bodes well for the President. Democrats are too scared of the WuFlu to show up in these numbers.

I tend to concur. Another potentially significant point of observation is what percentage of people in line are wearing masks. The mask-wearers will tend to be Biden voters. The non-wearers will tend to be Trump voters. 


The Key counties

Last night’s Darkstream addressed the key counties that will provide insight concerning who has won the U.S. Presidential election:

The key counties are:

  • Broward – FL
  • Philadelphia – PA
  • Wayne – MI
  • Hennepin – MN
  • Milwaukee – WI

And for an early glimpse into who will probably win the election, pay close attention to Mecklenburg County in NC. If Biden doesn’t get at least 64 percent there, he probably loses the election. On a related note, one viewer emailed to confirm one of the underlying theses about the Swing-Key system.

What you said about Broward County explains what I saw in 2000. It was clear very quickly that everything hinged on FL. I was paying close attention election night, with regular page refreshes, and I saw Bush’s lead increase from the low thousands early in the evening to a very solid 50K by around 2AM (PST). Gore was about to concede and Bush about to declare victory, when, suddenly, in a period of maybe 10 minutes, that lead shrank to around 1500 votes. It really blew my mind. 

You’re going to to need this to know what happened in a reasonable period of time, because Twitter is limiting to seven the number of outlets that are permitted to declare the winner.


Murders in Vienna

 A mass shooting by multiple gunmen in Vienna the night before lockdown:

At least seven people are thought to have been killed with several others injured in multiple gun and suspected suicide attacks near a synagogue in Vienna.

A huge manhunt is currently underway for several attackers armed with rifles with police confirming shootings at six different locations, starting near the synagogue at 8pm local time. 

One attacker is thought to have ‘blown themselves up’ during the rampage with another arrested and one shot dead by police. A police officer is also thought to have been shot and seriously injured.    

The rampage comes on the last evening before Austria goes into lockdown, with bars and restaurants in the country closed from midnight tonight.  

Europe really needs to reconsider its decision to permit Middle Easterners to wage their seemingly endless war on their territory.

And this is why you always move-move-move. Preferably in a perpindicular manner. Footage from the attack.


Actually, that’s legit

 A Wisconsin airport explains why a Biden event is allowed while a Trump rally isn’t:

The Trump campaign had initially planned to hold its Oct. 23 rally at Mitchell, but their request was denied. An airport spokesperson said the tenant was told that all special events that are “non-aeronautical in nature” are in violation of its lease with the airport. The event also would have impacted flight operations and been a violation of the city’s ban on large public gatherings, according to officials.

Instead, the president’s campaign moved to Stein Aircraft Services in Waukesha.

On Friday, when asked why a Biden event was allowed but a Trump event was not, a spokesperson said it does not allow political rallies on the airfield.

“The Airport does not allow political rallies on the airfield, regardless of which candidate requests it. Biden is hosting a small private meeting with about 12 people. This is the difference between a 12-person private meeting inside a building vs. a 20,000-person rally on the airfield, compromising the safety and security of airline operations,” said Harold Mester, director of public affairs and marketing for the airport.

That actually makes sense. Since no one is coming to the Biden “rally”, it really can’t be considered a public event.


The Swing-Key system

First, let’s review the final mainstream perspective. The Swing States this time are Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, in that order.

FL:  Biden + 4. The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate. If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a re-election victory for the President.

PA: Biden +7. Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state of the entire race for the White House. The final Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario. That’s down from Biden’s 11-point lead in the same poll from last month. 

MI: Biden +8, 51-43

MN: Biden +9, 52-43

WI: Biden +8, 52-44

Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio are not swing states. Neither is North Carolina, although we’ll be tracking it as an early reporting signal.

Now, as I’ll be explaining on the Darkstream later tonight, each of these states is structured the same way, with one or two urban counties providing one-third of the entire Democratic vote, while the Republican vote is scattered over the rest of the state. To know what is going to happen in the state, all that is really required is to know what is going to happen in those six counties, namely, Broward, Miami-Dade, Philadephia, Wayne, Hennepin, and Milwaukee. Hence what I call my Swing-Key system, which is short for Swing State – Key County analysis.

At this point, the two counties I’ve examined in detail are the two Florida counties. Of the two, the Broward County information is a little more current, but both are reasonably up-to-date on the voter information. In Broward, the Democratic advantage in voter registration delta is 1.04 percent. In keeping with the general increase in registrations, this suggests a net increase of 18,448 Democratic votes in Broward County.

However, in Miami-Dade, the Republicans actually have the voter registration delta working in their favor. The Republican advantage is 5.61 percent, which suggests a net decrease of -3,495 Democratic votes in Miami-Dade County. 15,000 more Democratic votes from the two counties that provide more than one-quarter of all the Democratic votes in Florida simply isn’t going to be enough, given that Republican registrations are actually up throughout the state.

Since President Trump won Florida by 119,770 votes in 2016, these numbers indicate that he will retain Florida with relative ease despite what the polls say. This is just a metric, not a mathematical proof, and its chief utility is that it gives us an informed point of comparison by which we can interpret the results as they come in. If Biden can’t get more than 475,000 votes in Broward or 660,000 votes in Miami-Dade, or exceed 67 percent in both counties, he has virtually no chance of winning either Florida or the election.


Walk it back, walk it back

We’ve officially reached CYA Season, as Nate Silver is beginning to change his tune despite insisting that Creepy Joe has a 90 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election:

Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania. Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on. Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.

The reality is the Biden is going to lose PA, MI, WI, AZ, and NC, as one new poll is already indicating that President Trump will even win the popular vote.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 47 percent.  Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receives two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives one percent of the vote.

The poll also shows the president leading in the Electoral College by a margin of 326 to 212. On election day 2016, the president won 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. The Constitution provides that a candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College votes cast–270 out of 538–to win the presidency.

According to Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)

Enjoy the Trumpslide. Don’t be surprised if the God-Emperor outperforms even these most recent and favorable predictions.


So Dumbledore really was gay

I’ve always despised the Harry Potter books. I’ve only ever seen part of one movie, but I hated that too. Apparently one-third of the script was devoted to one actor or another saying “Harry!” It would appear that my instincts are still sound when it comes to the Hellmouth, if this blind item from CDAN about a famous film franchise is any guide.

This actor was never higher than C+ list. Foreign born and mostly movies he has actually been in some of the biggest movies of all time. Speaking roles in most of them but just a minor character (although one all of you would know). He actually has a chance to be more famous outside of acting in his current career than he ever did acting, despite being in such a huge franchise. He was talking to an interviewer about his new profession and the interviewer asked the former actor why he chose the new profession. The former actor said it was because on the set of the franchise he was scared everyday of getting molested or raped by many of the older men that were on the set. He said this was especially true in the first few films where you learned really quickly not to walk around certain areas of a set or to wander too far away from other people. There were just too many men there who loved nothing more than dragging some 10 year old boy somewhere for 20 minutes and threatening to hit him or get him kicked off the movie if he told anyone. Our former actor said there were only a few older actors who took part, but they were some of the worst. An actor would tell a crew member and the crew member would grab the boy and hold him for the actor and then often the crew member would take a turn too. The former actor said some of the tween girls on the set were bothered, but as far as he knows, none were raped liked the boys. Once the actors got to be a certain age, they could fight or were big enough to get the men to back off, but with new young boys coming in for every film, it was a never ending cycle of sexual abuse and no one did anything to stop it.

Harry Potter

The director of the first two films is “a Spielberg protege who also directed Macauley Culkin in the two “Home Alone” movies.” I am as ashocked as I am sastonished. It’s getting to the point where we require words to describe the exact opposite of being surprised.