The great dumbing-down

A regular observes a change at work:

In high school we were told the newspaper was written for a 7-8th grade level.

Last month  in our corporate meeting we were told the new standard is 5th grade.

Next step: crayon.

‘Merica!

I don’t think it’s the Americans who are the problem, for the most part. At least, not Americans of the non-Paper variety.


Math is hard, Barbie

Uncephalized demonstrates why it is tremendously foolish to attempt to “correct” one’s intellectual superiors in taking exception to my observation about it being astronomically unlikely that any individual present at one mass shooting in the United States will be present at another one:

I’m responding to Vox’s OP: The odds against one person in a country of 320 million being in the vicinity of two such events are astronomical.

Which is flat-out wrong–unless I am making some boneheaded error, which is always possible, and why I showed my work–and leads me to think Vox didn’t bother doing the math at all before jumping to a conspiracy as his explanation. I may be in error here–I’m sure someone will quickly point it out, if so–but by my math these coincidences are far from astronomically unlikely.

Las Vegas 2017 attendance: 20,000
Gilroy 2019 attendance: 80,000

I don’t know how many attendees were actually physically present at each event at the time of the shootings, but I’ll assume two thirds, so 14,520 and 52,800.

Proportion of US population present at LV shooting: 14,520 / 350,000,000 = .000041 or .0041{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}

Proportion of the population NOT at LV is the inverse or 99.9959{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}

Likelihood of one person being at both events is then: 1 – (.999959^52,800). Which is 88.8{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}. The number of times this apparently happened is 3, so it’s 0.888^3, or 70{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}.

In other words, through purely random chance it is more likely than not that 3 people who were at the LV 2017 shooting would also be present at the Gilroy shooting.

Making similar estimates about the LV-Parkland connection: 39{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4} likely assuming an average family size of 4, 3000 attendees of Parkland and we are looking for a direct family member involved in both events.

The Borderline-LV coincidence has the lowest odds as I run the numbers, actually quite low, at 0.046{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4} or about 1 chance in 2200, partly because the guy was actually killed, a much lower number than “was also there”.

I don’t know enough about the San Bernardino or Toronto events to start even making assumptions.

In this model the probability of the LV-Gilroy and LV-Parkland coincidences both happening is 0.70*0.39 = 0.27 or 27{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}. Just better than 1 in 4.

The very large numbers present at these festivals make for counterintuitive probabilities. The Borderline connection is the only one that even gives me pause, but even 1 in 2200 is not what I’d call “astronomically low”.

Uncephalized is correct about one thing. I didn’t bother actually doing the math beforehand because I didn’t need to do it. And I didn’t need to do it in order to have a general idea about the size of the probabilities involved because a) I am highly intelligent and b) I have an instinctual grasp of mathematical relationships. I knew the probabilities were astronomical, in much the same way you know a tall man’s height is over six feet without needing to actually measure him. The boneheaded error Uncephalized has made here is that he simply doesn’t know how to calculate the probability of independent events. But it’s really not a difficult concept. For example, if the odds of rolling a six on a six-sided die are 1 in 6, then the odds of rolling two sixes on two different six-sided dice are (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36.

But before we calculate the probability of these two specific independent events, let’s get the base numbers right. The Gilroy Garlic Festival is a three-day event, so that 80,000 is reduced to 26,667 before being reduced another one-third as per Uncephalized’s assumption to account for the timing of the event. This brings us to an estimated 17,787 people present at the time of the shootings. Note that reducing the estimated 20,000 Las Vegas attendance by the same one-third gives us 13,340, not 14,520.

It’s never a good sign when they can’t even get the simple division right. Now for the relevant probabilities.

  • Gilroy probability: Dividing 17,787 by 350,000,000 results in a probability of 0.00005082, or one in 19,677.
  • Las Vegas probability: Dividing 13,340 by 350,000,000 results in a probability of 0.00003811428, or one in 26,237
  • Gilroy AND Las Vegas probability: Multiplying 0.00005082 by 0.00003811428 results in a probability of 0.0000000019369677096, or one in 516,270,868.

You will observe that 88.8 percent, or 1/1.13, is very, very far away from 1/516,270,868, and 0.0000000019369677096 cubed – to account for all three dual survivors reported – is even further off from 70 percent. As I originally stated, the odds against anyone having been at both events are astronomical, even if we leave out relevant factors such as the fact that 11 percent of all US citizens have never left their birth state throughout the course of their entire lives and that Las Vegas averages 24,381 visitors from California every day.

I suggest that “astronomical” is a perfectly reasonable way to describe a probability of one in 516 million cubed, or if you prefer, one in 137,604,570,000,000,016,192,784,160. I also suggest that you refrain from attempting to correct me if your IQ is sub-Mensa level. And finally, I suggest that it is not “jumping to a conspiracy” to observe obvious and glaring statistical improbabilities.


My kind of Catholic

ZhukovG perfectly expresses my perspective:

Here we are, Satan’s hosts arrayed against us and we spend more time shooting at one another than at the enemy.

If any man confess that Jesus is Lord; he is my brother, my comrade. I don’t care how he prays or the manner of his worship.

I only ask that he hold his place in the line of battle against the Powers and Principalities that have come against us.

Amen and a-fucking-men. Evil is aggressively attempting to erect the Tower of Babel 2.0, the Synagogue of Satan is shamelessly attempting to subvert language, nations, religions, and history itself, and yet various retards from every church and denomination prefer to engage in theological disputation rather than stand united against the god of this world under the banner of Jesus Christ.

Shut up and get thee to the battlefront.


Mailvox: the parrot whisperer

A Darkstream viewer shares a rather strange experience:

I have two parrots that live in my living room. Usually by around 7 they are still being a bit raucous and noisy. However, I have been playing your podcast at that time and I’ve noticed something strange.

The birds are mesmerized by the sound of your voice. Both birds get very calm, and remain well behaved and quiet. It’s really freaking weird!!!!! This is highly out of character for both of them at that time of the day.

My caique – who is a VERY high energy bird – sat quietly on my chest tonight, listening to your voice with her eyes half-open. My brown head parrot also sat quietly through an entire podcast, and into the second one. 

The Darkstream. It’s like a sea of tranquility.


Mailvox: outsourcing defense

I don’t think there can be much doubt any longer that the US military is going to lose its next major war:

You have no idea how bad the rot is within US Defense Contractors these days. I work as an engineer for a major [defense contractor] and I regularly hear Mandarin being spoken in our office by the Chinese-born people in one of our testing groups. It is rather insane.

Additionally, their English is terrible and their accents are more exaggerated, comical and less intelligible than those performed by Owen Benjamin in his various, hilarious Chinamen skits. I wouldn’t be surprised if their home nation had entire models of some of our vehicles based on these hiring and employment practices. It has certainly happened before with other companies and Defense projects.

I looked up one of these guys on LinkedIn and he did his undergrad and got his Masters in Beijing, but got his PhD at a US university. Probably paid for by the Chinese government. The Paperwork American mythos is so strong as to begar belief and all logic. Can you imagine a Chinese defense contractor allowing a single American-born individual within a few miles of their facilities, let alone through their doors? I certainly can’t.

Whoever writes The Decline and Fall of the United States of America in the wake of the final US collapse is going to have a very difficult time convincing future generations that the historical Americans were genuinely as stupid as they are being described.


Mailvox: one giant leap for an omega

LE begins to apply his newfound knowledge of the socio-sexual hierarchy:

I’m a noob in this world. I believe I was an omega until one stream you said something angrily like, “just do what normal people do!” to another omega man. I got a haircut, trimmed my beard to stubble, and started wearing clothes that aren’t sweats.

I walked past a house party in my neighborhood, Saturday, July 13th, and a woman yelled, “GQ!” I just kept walking thinking, obviously they aren’t talking to me, but then the a second one screamed, “GQ come here!”

Although it went against my instinct of running home and torturing myself with remorse for eternity, I joined them. Long story short, one of them, a nurse, asked to use my phone, and she saved her number into it. Even if this relationship results in nothing more than a few text messages, I’m forever in your debt.

I wasted the first 30 years of my life as an antisocial pussy, and always thought of the term “carpe diem” as a load of shit. Now, I’m excited to seize every day. I was thinking about your and Owen’s role in turning my formerly worthless life around, while listening to Dean Martin’s Kick in the Head, and this stupid, simple line brought me to tears, “if this is just the beginning/ then my life is gonna be beautiful!” So I felt obligated to write, if only to let you know of my gratitude.

If you want to win, if you even want to score a point or two, you have to a) learn the rules and b) get in the game. Not necessarily in that order.

LE’s instincts are all wrong, obviously, for whatever reason. But he understands this now, and he has a mind and a will that together are capable of overriding those erroneous instincts. And it appears he has better raw material with which to work than the average omega. Regardless, the key is this: if your normal patterns of behavior aren’t working for you, then change them! Stop enviously sniping at the normal, functional people, stop listening to your fellow dysfunctionals, and start simply doing what the normal people do.

If it worked for him, it can work for you.


Gladstone on free trade

A reader sends an informative quote from the great 19th-century British advocate of free trade, Prime Minister William Gladstone:

Advocacy of Free Trade goes back to the United Kingdom of 1846-1860.  However, what William Gladstone actually said as a defense of free trade is “It is a mistake to suppose that the best way of giving benefit to the labouring classes is simply to operate on the articles consumed by them. If you want to do them the maximum of good, you should rather operate on the articles which give them a maximum of employment.”

However, in 1846-1860 English manufacturing was the best in the world, though America had surpassed them in some fields. Free trade meant far larger markets abroad for English goods, and cheaper foodstuffs at home, meaning that the English labouring classes had more money to spend on their own manufactures.

For precisely the same reason, the French have rigorous protections of their somewhat inefficient agriculture, namely it creates a maximum of employment.

For the United States of 2019, our labor is relatively expensive, so in many areas our industries are not competitive with places where labor costs little. Gladstone’s rationale for free trade thus indicates for us that protectionism, not free trade, is to our advantage.

Translation: it is a fundamental mistake for economists to focus on providing the US population with access to cheap imported goods instead of jobs that permit them to pay for more expensive domestic goods.


The Christian view on Diversity

Archcuck David French on why he imported an Ethiopian to the USA:

I’m an evangelical Christian, and ever since I was a young man, two Bible verses have tugged at my soul. The first comes from the Book of James, and defines “pure” religious practice in part as looking after “widows and orphans in their distress.” The second, from the Book of Galatians, declares an eternal truth: “There is neither Jew nor Gentile, neither slave nor free, nor is there male and female, for you are all one in Christ Jesus.” As a result, my wife and I not only felt called to adopt, but we believed that race was no barrier to unity for a family of genuine faith.

And so, in the summer of 2010, we journeyed to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to pick up our youngest child. Then we chopped off his penis, gave him a girl’s name, and brought him to America where there is neither male nor female, for we are all one in Diversity.

“Ashkelon shall see it, and be afraid; Gaza too, and shall writhe in anguish; Ekron also, because it’s hopes are confounded. The king shall perish in Gaza; Askelon shall be uninhabited, a mixed people shall dwell in Ashdod, and I will cut of the pride of Philistia.”
(Zech. 9:5-6)

Reader Matt notes: In the Bible, the destruction of national identity is a clear sign of the judgement of God, therefore it is very bad for a nation. This speaks volumes about what is happening in the West; multiculturalism is literally a sign that we have been very, very bad. As you said in a recent Darkstream, we need to stop tolerating those who are tempting God to smite them. 

Immigration, diversity, and assimilation are God’s collective curse on a nation, because it is a way of destroying a nation even more completely than war. Just ask your nearest American Indian who belongs to one of the 562 tribes that haven’t been completely extinguished yet.

And I can’t help but wonder how long it will take Churchians to declare transgenderism to be proper theology on the basis of that verse from Galatians.


Mailvox: defending Ben Shapiro

Jew613 rather unwisely attempted to defend the Littlest Chickenhawk’s disrespect for Jesus Christ:

Jews never believed Jesus was anything but a man. This can’t possibly be news to you. There are a series of very specific prophecies, which werent fulfilled. Hence the need for a second coming so Jews rejected him. While the Gemara doesnt mention Jesus, the vat of semen story is not about your Jesus, why do you expect reverence for your divinity from another religion? There isnt any such respect shown to from Christians towards Jews, Rabbis, shuls, or the religion itself.

It’s not news to me or anyone here that Jews never believed Jesus was anything but a man. Hey, at least they believe he actually existed and walked the Holy Land, right? But apparentlyit is news to a lot of PragerU-supporting Christians and conservative Shapiro fans, which has been demonstrated rather clearly by their reaction to Big Bear breaking the news to them.

As to why we expect respect – not reverence, respect – for our Lord and Savior from another religion, it is because you live in our Christian civilization. You don’t live in a Jewish civilization, you don’t live in a Jewish society, you don’t live in the Jewish homeland, you live in a Christian civilization and a Christian society. So, if you don’t want to show respect for Jesus Christ, for Christianity, and Christian traditions, that’s your choice and your prerogative, but then by all means get your fat, subversive, inversive asses out of our collective house.

When I lived in Japan, I showed respect for both their Shinto spirits and the Amidha Buddha worshipped by my hosts, not because I believed in any of it in the slightest, but because I was a guest in their civilization and their society. I didn’t try to forcibly alter their society because I was accustomed to using a fork instead of chopsticks and leaving my shoes on inside the house. How do you not understand that basic principle of decent human behavior?

Now, it is an absolute lie to claim that there is no respect shown to Jews, Rabbis, shuls, and Judaism by tens of millions of Christians across the West. An ABSOLUTE and shameless lie. But that raises the question, on precisely what grounds does the Jewish religion even merit any respect? What is there to respect, exactly? Very, very few non-Jews even know what that religion is, much less what the average practitioner believes. The rabbis literally make it an imperative, if not a capital offense, to share even basic facts about your religion with outsiders. So how can anyone be expected to respect what is purposefully hidden from them?

More importantly, Christians are not living in your civilization or your society. You are living in ours. You are a guest, you are not a co-owner, let alone the proprietor of the place. That means you owe respect and conformity to Christian rules, traditions, and sensibilities, whereas Christians owe you nothing at all unless they happen to live in Israel.

Now, I am aware that God promised Abraham that he would be “a blessing” and his children would be “to me a kingdom of priests and a holy nation”. And that was assuming they actually kept their side of the bargain. I note that He never promised the children of Abraham, of which the Jews are a one-thirteenth fraction, that they would heal the world, let alone rule the nations and eat like effendi with thousands of subhuman animals to serve them as slaves.

So, my question to Jew613 is this: who promised you that?


Mailvox: another reason for cancelling student loan debt

A bankruptcy lawyer explains how student loan debt is often just the first domino:

Here’s what practical experience has taught me in the thousands of bankruptcy cases I’ve filed for clients: student loan debt perpetuates bankruptcy filings.

A pattern is emerging. Clients making $25,000-$40,000/year with student loans see us every decade to file a new Chapter 7 bankruptcy case. Why? They take out predatory loans and use credit cards to stay afloat. Why? Because the ~$50,000 in student loans wasn’t discharged in the last bankruptcy. There are limited programs to get around the debt temporarily, but most are stuck in the cycle.

In a sense, the predatory loans and credit cards they are taking out again and not paying are paying the student loans they’re stuck with (i.e. the money being paid on the student loans is offset by dischargeable debt they later take bankruptcy for to stay afloat). It’s a vicious cycle.

There are a number of bad reasons to not discharge student loan debt, but there are no good reasons. Literally nothing good is going to come of trying to squeeze even more blood from those particular stones.