Well, SKI sure nailed it this time. He forecast a likely 5 percent drop in USERX and the gold stocks by Tuesday’s close, and the HUI got hammered down 6.21 percent today alone. This triggers his triple-sell signal, which has some significant and worrisome implications.
He wrote yesterday: But if the triple sell pattern occurs, all I can say is that the prior three triple historical sells have yielded 60-90% declines in USERX over several years corresponding to disinflation or deflation. I find that hard to believe, but it has not happened yet (pending tomorrow).
Does this mean deflation? I find it hard to credit, as the central bank can easily go into hyperinflation mode any time it chooses, and has already indicated that it will. This supports the Elliott Wavers, who’ve been insisting on a deflationary scenario for the last eighteen months, and contradicts Hamilton’s RDMA bull notion, which has gold setting up for a buy soon at 1.02 – we’re at 1.04 now. Ackerman, too, called a big short-term decline, but he sees it turning around next week.
What are you seeing, Jamie?