It’s odd, but the NFL theory of market performance could turn out to be another factor here. I never subscribed to it; I thought that the NFC champion Buccaneers would put paid to the idea that an NFC Super Bowl winner meant a positive year for the markets. But, I was manifestly wrong. And since the AFC Patriots won this year, that supposedly suggests a down year, which has certainly been the case so far.
Socionomics considers the markets a measure of mass societal emotion. As the challenger is ahead – however slightly – going into the convention, conventional political theory has it that the sitting president will be defeated. If we reverse the socionomics interpretation that states a negative mood as indicated by a down market favors challengers, then we should assume that the markets will be continuing on their downtrend instead of trending up into the election as is generally assumed.
I have other, more technical reasons for my opinion on where the markets are going, but it’s an interesting thought. I still don’t see how the conference affiliation of a sports team could have anything to do with mass emotions, though.