Dick Morris sees it coming:
How big is Bush’s lead? Don’t believe the surveys that show it in the 5- to 7-point range. Believe the surveys of Time and Newsweek, which show a lead in excess of 10 points.
The difference is because pollsters disagree about whether or not to weight their results to keep constant the ratio of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in their sample. Some polling firms treat party affiliation as a demographic constant and, when they find that their sample has too many Republicans, they weight down each Republican interview and assign an extra weight to each Democratic response.
I’ve changed parties, I know many people who have changed parties in their lifetime. Even those who don’t change parties, like Zell Miller, are capable of crossing party lines to vote. A static political model is as short-sighted as a static revenue model for predicting the results of tax changes, and is as unlikely to be accurate.
However, a huge victory for Bush does not mean the country has become more conservative, it simply means he has picked up more support from the Left than he has lost from the Right. Which is hardly surprising, given his consistent drift away from conservative and Constitutional principles. I won’t be surprised if the Libertarian and Constitution parties more than double their votes from the 2000 election, even as George Bush crushes the hapless John Kerry.