As it is said, the value of any predictive model can only be found in its ability to correctly anticipate the future. So, you may recall that my expectations of the U.S. electorate are that it would increasingly consist of a white ethnic vote against a multi-colored alliance of non-white ethnics combined with an increasingly small number of left-wing white quislings. With the most recent election, we are now beginning to see that happen with the coalescing of the white vote.
Exit polling shows racial polarization of the electorate has begun to cross party lines, with whites less likely to back Democratic candidates than they have been in the past. Across 21 states where Senate races were exit polled, whites broke for the Republican by a significant margin in all but four – Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon. None of those four states has backed a GOP candidate for president in the post-Reagan era except when New Hampshire went for George W. Bush by 1 point in 2000.
The Senate seats on the ballot this year were last up for re-election in 2008, a presidential year. Democrats typically rely on greater turnout among their core voters when the presidential race tops the ticket. But still, Democratic Senate candidates lost ground among white voters by an average of 10 points compared with 2008. White voters abandoned Democrats in droves in places with heated contests as well as those without much action. The exceptions were Minnesota and Oregon – where Democratic incumbents improved their overall support across the board – and Mississippi – where Travis Childers managed to grow the Democratic share of the white vote from 8 percent to 16 percent.
The shift is particularly acute in the South, where some of the last white Democrats in the House of Representatives lost their seats on Tuesday.
- In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan carried just 33 percent of the white vote, down from 39 percent in 2008. White voters under age 30 backed Hagan decisively in 2008, 60 percent for her to 36 percent for her opponent, as they helped to sweep Barack Obama into office. But this year, younger white voters who cast ballots in North Carolina broke just as decisively for Thom Tillis, with 56 percent to 32 percent for Hagan. Twelve percent backed Sean Haugh, the Libertarian.
- In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu captured just 18 percent of the white vote, a sharp decline from the 33 percent she garnered in 2008. Younger whites there broke for her Republican opponent in 2008, 68 percent to 30 percent, and they were even more likely to back one of her GOP opponents this time around – 22 percent voted for Landrieu while 74 percent went for Bill Cassidy or Rob Maness.
- In one surprisingly competitive Senate race Tuesday, whites in Virginia voted 37 percent for Mark Warner, 60 percent for Ed Gillespie. In 2008, Warner won the votes of 56 percent of whites. Younger whites broke heavily this year for Ed Gillespie in Virginia, 57 percent to 31 percent for Warner. In 2008, Warner carried 59 percent among this group.
- Even winning Democrats aren’t immune to the drop-off in white support: Illinois Democratic Senator Dick Durbin captured 43 percent of the white vote in his successful bid for re-election, that’s down 18 points from his support among whites in 2008.
FEW REPUBLICANS HAVE REACHED BEYOND WHITE VOTERS
But Republicans haven’t minimized racial polarization in the other direction either. The coalition behind Republican Senate candidates was predominantly white, 90 percent across all 21 states with Senate races that were exit polled, ranging from 79 percent white Alaska to 98 percent white in West Virginia. Dan Sullivan in Alaska managed to pool the most diverse electorate with a strong showing among Alaska natives, and more than 10 percent of those backing both John Cornyn in Texas and Cory Gardner in Colorado were Hispanic.
Those three – Sullivan, Cornyn and Gardner – were the only Republicans to assemble a coalition that was less white than Mitt Romney’s in the 2012 presidential election.
Notice this phrase in particular: “the last white Democrats in the House of Representatives”. Notice also the four outlying states where whites did not overwhelmingly favor Republicans: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon. Notice anything they have in common? 78.9, 85.3, 22.214.171.124. In other words, all of them are a) traditionally left-leaning, and b) considerably whiter than the national average of 72.4 percent. Call it the Scalzi effect, in which a white left-liberal, through ideology, hypocrisy or sheer ignorance, supports diversity and other left-wing policies that work to the detriment of his own race because he is geographically removed from experiencing the consequences of those policies… for the moment. Both traditionally right-leaning states and less white states are moving rapidly towards White Identity politics, as has been inevitable since the successful 1965 assault on the traditional U.S. ethnic identity.
This means the Great Partition has officially begun. Most people don’t realize it yet, even as they are beginning to take unconscious part in it. Republican and Democrat are no longer pure political identities, but are increasingly markers of ethno-cultural loyalties. It will, of course, end in bloodshed. Considerable bloodshed. When will the violent phase begin? You’ll know it when the Scalzi effectors belatedly attempt to join the side that doesn’t hate them for their genetic privilege. Which is to say, when John Scalzi and his wretched kind first stop openly supporting the Democratic Party, which will soon be followed by their open endorsement of the Republican Party.
You may or may not be pleased by this development, but how you feel about it is absolutely and utterly irrelevant. America is not special. This time is not different. And history is absolutely eloquent concerning the eventual fate of multi-ethnic states. If you’re having trouble understanding this, here is a useful question to ask yourself: how do all of these ethnically homogenous states throughout history keep magically coming into being?