The incipient Trumpslide

I believe we are now beginning to see the signs of a preference cascade that are necessary if there is to be the predicted Trumpslide in November:

Donald Trump’s lead over Hillary Clinton in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking poll grew to nearly six percentage points on Thursday, his largest advantage since his post-convention bounce in July.

The biggest reason appears to be an increase in the likelihood of Trump supporters who say they plan to vote, combined with a drop among Clinton supporters on that question. The nominees are now roughly equal in the voting commitment of their supporters, erasing an advantage previously held by Clinton.

The poll shows Trump leading Clinton, 47%-41%.

Yes, it’s just a national poll. But the state polls are showing a distinctly Trumpward direction as well.

  • Florida: CNN/ORC Trump +3
  • Florida: CNN/ORC Trump +4
  • Ohio: CNN/ORC Trump +5
  • Ohio: Bloomberg Trump +5
  • Nevada: Monmouth Trump +2 

Keep in mind that as recently as August 21, Clinton was +5 in Ohio. That is a ten-point swing in three weeks. If the trend continues, Trump won’t just win, it will be a Trumpslide. I’ll be interested to get dh’s read on this, if he stops by the blog today, as he’s more up on the state polls than I am.