Not the betting odds, but rather, the number of betters, predict a Brexit-style upset:
It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it. Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.
Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican. That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.
William Hill’s spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said: “It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”
On the other hand, they’ve still only increased the odds to 4-1 against. Nate Silver is calling it 85 percent for Hillary.
Still, they all sound awfully desperate and shrill, especially compared to anyone who can remember Reagan landslide.