A perusal of the state polls shows that the crucial states tomorrow, in declining order of importance to Trump, will be:
- North Carolina
- New Hampshire
- OH: +7 +3.5 (+2.2)
- FL: +4 +0.2 (-2.8)
- NC: TIE +1.4 (-1.3)
- NH: -1 -0.6 (-6.0)
- PA: TIE -2.4 (-6.0)
- VA: -6 -4.3 (-7.0)
The only real cause for concern at the state level is Florida, but the abrupt and sudden jump of Hillary to her highest level of support throughout the entire campaign at the same time it is falling elsewhere is not very credible and hints at pollster shenanigans. I have no doubt that a closer analysis of the sampling will reveal unlikely anomalies.
Other good signs are that some of the supposed battleground states are now solidly pro-Trump.
- AZ: +5 +4.0 (+3.0)
- GA: +2 +4.6 (+4.8)
- NV: TIE +2.0 (-1.8)
Axiom Strategies takes the polls at face value, of course, and reaches a similar conclusion:
We’re looking at a margin of error race in seven of the eight battleground states we surveyed. Either one of these candidates could realistically run the table in these seven states. The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group
The three states to watch early are Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If VA is “too close to call”, that is an excellent sign for Trump. If NC is too close to call, that is a potential cause for concern. If Virginia, Connecticut, or Maine goes Trump, the Trumpslide is on. Keep in mind that NC closes at 7:30 PM, half an hour later than VA and FL, so it probably won’t report quite as soon.
If Clinton wins VA, Trump wins NC, and Florida is too close to call, the next big indicator is PA, where the polls close at 8 PM. If that goes Trump, he wins. If it is “too close to call”, that is also a good sign.