Early county review

CURRENT VERDICT: early returns look VERY solidly pro-Trump. It’s all but over already. Note that we need to see OFFICIAL RETURNS from the counties confirming the statistical trends before anything can be called.

Quote of the Day: You’re not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes. – Nate Silver, 538


Broward County (M=67)

2016:

  • 1,179,189 registered
  • 822,837 cast
  • 71.8 percent turnout
2020:
  • 1,267,187 registered (+7.5%)
  • 954,442 cast (+15.9%)
  • 75.32 percent turnout
Reports: 
  • Biden is at 75.1% with 10 percent reported.
  • Biden running 1.2 percent behind Hillary so far.
  • FL all voting: Rs +56,009. Broward, election day only: Ds up 2300, Palm Beach, election day only: Rs +12,000 (!)
  • Trump seriously overperforming in Miami-Dade, up 4.4 percent vs 2016. FL r/d: Rs +92,692 Rs +14,000 in  . . . PALM BEACH on election day.
  • There are only four blue counties on election day. One is D by only 14 votes, one by 48 votes, one by  1070 votes, and Broward by 3,294. We are 4,426 votes from having every FL county red today.
  • At noon, Trump ALREADY has more votes in Broward County than he did in 2016: 204,368 to 193,658. 
  • As of 1 PM, more votes had been cast in FL than were cast in 2016, 9,967,361 to 9,420,039. Donald Trump currently has an estimated lead of 116,422 which exceeds his 2016 winning margin of 113,000.
  • “Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I’d just better go and play some FIFA or something.” – Nate Silver
  • Voter enthusiasm has been very underwhelming here in Broward County. Turnout looked low on the second to last day of early voting when I went.”
  • CNN just said Biden campaign is making an extra effort to get voters to the polls in South Florida, and that FL, NC, and GA are their main challenges.
  • This Nate Silver thread has to be read to be believed. Someone, somewhere, is going to be shocked.

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

Reports:

  • Trump picked up 3.05% in early votes vis-a-vis 2016.
Philadelphia County (M=83)

Wayne County (M=67)

Hennepin County (M=62)

Milwaukee County (M=67)



The Key counties

Last night’s Darkstream addressed the key counties that will provide insight concerning who has won the U.S. Presidential election:

The key counties are:

  • Broward – FL
  • Philadelphia – PA
  • Wayne – MI
  • Hennepin – MN
  • Milwaukee – WI

And for an early glimpse into who will probably win the election, pay close attention to Mecklenburg County in NC. If Biden doesn’t get at least 64 percent there, he probably loses the election. On a related note, one viewer emailed to confirm one of the underlying theses about the Swing-Key system.

What you said about Broward County explains what I saw in 2000. It was clear very quickly that everything hinged on FL. I was paying close attention election night, with regular page refreshes, and I saw Bush’s lead increase from the low thousands early in the evening to a very solid 50K by around 2AM (PST). Gore was about to concede and Bush about to declare victory, when, suddenly, in a period of maybe 10 minutes, that lead shrank to around 1500 votes. It really blew my mind. 

You’re going to to need this to know what happened in a reasonable period of time, because Twitter is limiting to seven the number of outlets that are permitted to declare the winner.


The Swing-Key system

First, let’s review the final mainstream perspective. The Swing States this time are Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, in that order.

FL:  Biden + 4. The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate. If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a re-election victory for the President.

PA: Biden +7. Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state of the entire race for the White House. The final Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario. That’s down from Biden’s 11-point lead in the same poll from last month. 

MI: Biden +8, 51-43

MN: Biden +9, 52-43

WI: Biden +8, 52-44

Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio are not swing states. Neither is North Carolina, although we’ll be tracking it as an early reporting signal.

Now, as I’ll be explaining on the Darkstream later tonight, each of these states is structured the same way, with one or two urban counties providing one-third of the entire Democratic vote, while the Republican vote is scattered over the rest of the state. To know what is going to happen in the state, all that is really required is to know what is going to happen in those six counties, namely, Broward, Miami-Dade, Philadephia, Wayne, Hennepin, and Milwaukee. Hence what I call my Swing-Key system, which is short for Swing State – Key County analysis.

At this point, the two counties I’ve examined in detail are the two Florida counties. Of the two, the Broward County information is a little more current, but both are reasonably up-to-date on the voter information. In Broward, the Democratic advantage in voter registration delta is 1.04 percent. In keeping with the general increase in registrations, this suggests a net increase of 18,448 Democratic votes in Broward County.

However, in Miami-Dade, the Republicans actually have the voter registration delta working in their favor. The Republican advantage is 5.61 percent, which suggests a net decrease of -3,495 Democratic votes in Miami-Dade County. 15,000 more Democratic votes from the two counties that provide more than one-quarter of all the Democratic votes in Florida simply isn’t going to be enough, given that Republican registrations are actually up throughout the state.

Since President Trump won Florida by 119,770 votes in 2016, these numbers indicate that he will retain Florida with relative ease despite what the polls say. This is just a metric, not a mathematical proof, and its chief utility is that it gives us an informed point of comparison by which we can interpret the results as they come in. If Biden can’t get more than 475,000 votes in Broward or 660,000 votes in Miami-Dade, or exceed 67 percent in both counties, he has virtually no chance of winning either Florida or the election.


Walk it back, walk it back

We’ve officially reached CYA Season, as Nate Silver is beginning to change his tune despite insisting that Creepy Joe has a 90 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election:

Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania. Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on. Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.

The reality is the Biden is going to lose PA, MI, WI, AZ, and NC, as one new poll is already indicating that President Trump will even win the popular vote.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 47 percent.  Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receives two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives one percent of the vote.

The poll also shows the president leading in the Electoral College by a margin of 326 to 212. On election day 2016, the president won 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. The Constitution provides that a candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College votes cast–270 out of 538–to win the presidency.

According to Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)

Enjoy the Trumpslide. Don’t be surprised if the God-Emperor outperforms even these most recent and favorable predictions.


The polls “tighten”

Precisely on schedule. Demoralization Season is now over and it’s Maintain Future Credibility time. This Republican candidate is correct about what is happening as predicted.

The Trump/Biden polls aren’t tightening. This is the last ditch effort of pollsters trying to save their pathetic propaganda careers.

– Lauren Witzke, US Senate candidate, DE

Unfortunately for those propaganda careers, the magnitude of Trump’s victory is going to render their efforts futile.


The Trumpslide cometh

Clay Travers of Outkick the Coverage explains why he is voting for Donald Trump:

I believe every single media member should address his or her audience and say exactly what they are doing with their own vote this year. I think authenticity matters and I believe audiences should know what public figures who claim to be unbiased do when they enter the privacy of a voting booth. This is not a new position for me, I have shared my presidential votes publicly every year that I’ve been a public figure.

For those of you who are new to Outkick: here are my presidential votes since I became a public media figure in 2004:

2004: John Kerry

2008: Barack Obama

2012: Barack Obama

2016: Gary Johnson

2020: Donald Trump

I also voted for Al Gore in 2000 and worked on his political campaign as a college student.

This voting record illustrates precisely why linear models based on changing demographics don’t work. And it also demonstrates why the God-Emperor is going to considerably exceed expectations next week.


Franco-Swiss model predicts Trump victory

The GDP numbers are in. The God-Emperor will win:

According to the election prediction model developed by John Antonakis, Professor at HEC Lausanne (University of Lausanne) and Philippe Jacquart, Professor at EMLyon, the deciding factors in the critical swing states will be the state of the economy and the charisma of the candidates. For the November 3rd US Presidential election, positive economic indicators should boost the chances of a Trump win.

The statistical model developed by the researchers and professors John Antonakis and Philippe Jacquart, is based on two kinds of data: the country’s economic fundamentals and the political party currently in power (based on the economic model developed by Prof. R. Fair at Yale University), as well as the candidates’ level of charisma. This model has correctly called the 2016 and 2012 elections and, retrospectively, 20 of 24 elections from 1916-2008.

  • Positive economic messages help an incumbent get re-elected.
  • An incumbent president running again has an advantage.
  • Economic growth data in this quarter will weigh heavily on voting outcomes (current forecasts suggest between 20-30{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} 3rd Quarter growth).
  • Biden’s election speech is less charismatic than Trump’s speech.

And what was the economic growth reported?  

U.S. GDP booms at 33.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} rate in Q3, better than expected.

Ergo, it’s not only in the bag, but President Trump is going to win in a landslide that has only been exceeded by Ronald Reagan in his 49-state thumping of Walter Mondale. Despite the Fake Polls, everyone knows this is going to happen: Walmart is not pulling all its guns-for-sale off the floor because Trump’s supporters lack weaponry and Rodeo Drive is not already being boarded up prior to Election Day because Hollywood storeowners anticipate excessive exuberance on the part of ecstatic Biden voters.

“Joe Biden is heading to St. Paul, Minnesota, tomorrow. It will be the fullest travel day of his general election campaign, with stops now in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.”

Translation: Biden is going to lose Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.


They rationalize too much

It’s fascinating to see the media frantically citing the overwhelming Fake Poll numbers, as if by repetition they can stave off the approaching reckoning. And yet, they are observably worried that all the polls are wrong.

As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.”

In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation’s pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there’s no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor….

Fundamentally, the current polling in the 2020 race is different from 2016 in three important ways.

First, Biden’s lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton’s was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side.

And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states. In 2016, these same polls had shown flashing red warning signs for Clinton, particularly in districts with lots of white working-class voters.

The spinning won’t stop until the Young Turks cry. Just for the record, let’s note the prediction by The Economist.

95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Joe Biden 95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} 249-421

05{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Donald Trump 117-289

Trump winning the popular vote is really going to shatter them.