No “tossup in Texas”

Now the media is just getting high on its own supply:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler. Biden’s lead among likely voters is 48{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}-45{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, within the poll’s margin of error….

“Texas remains a tossup because of the public’s attitudes toward President Trump,” said political scientist Mark Owens, who directed the poll.

I’m only posting this because I suspect it will be funny to compare it to the actual results. Meanwhile, 538 has actually bumped up Biden’s chances from 77 percent a month ago to 87 percent today.

Election night promises to be a lot of fun watching the pollsters dance.

In fairness, it’s his only chance

“We’re in a situation where we have put together – and you guys did it for our admi … the president, Obama’s administration before this – we have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.”

– Joe Biden

Putting together the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in American history isn’t nothing. It probably isn’t compatible with U.S. law or the U.S. Constitution, but one really shouldn’t dismiss the historic accomplishment out of hand.

No wonder they’re keeping poor old Creepy Joe on such a short leash. At this point, I’m surprised they let him talk at all.

Ignore the Fake Polls

The God-Emperor’s reign will continue unabated. Below is a reader photo from last night’s Trump rally in Florida. Meanwhile, Creepy Joe can’t get 10 people to show up to see him. #Trumpslide2020

Where did Creepy Joe’s money go?

Joe Biden’s financial reports simply don’t add up:

Joe Biden’s personal finances — at least as he lists them publicly for voters — don’t add up.

The politician who reveled in the moniker “Middle Class Joe” carried a relatively modest portfolio during 47 years in public office. But he scored a $16 million-plus windfall after he left the Obama White House. That includes $11 million he and his wife Jill earned in 2017, mostly on book and speaking fees, $4.6 million in 2018 and $985,000 last year, according to tax returns he made public earlier in the election.

But when he filed a federal financial disclosure form earlier this year to run for president, the Bidens listed only assets of between $1.5 million and $3.2 million. And that invites the question: Where did the rest of the money go?

“I can guarantee you if I was auditing those forms, I’d have questions,” says Paul Miller, the owner of New York-based tax firm Miler & Company LLP. 

The corruption of the Biden crime family almost certainly exceeds that of famous crime families of the past. It’s intriguing to see how so many of the reportedly rich don’t actually have any money. Perhaps, like Rush Limbaugh having talent on loan from God, they only have money on loan from Satan.

The end of the political poll

Another reason to anticipate a Trump victory: when the President wins again, we’ll never have to pay any more attention to the pollsters:

Should Trump once again dispatch his Democratic challenger, the polling industry is finished, Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday. 

“Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry,” he told Fox anchor Bret Baier. “But the public will have no faith. No confidence. If Donald Trump surprises people… my profession is done.”

Luntz insists that his polling is accurate this time, and that Biden will win. However, undecided voters may be leaning toward Trump. As the two men faced off in the final presidential debate in Tennessee on Thursday night, Luntz organized a focus group of undecided voters. After the showdown, a majority of these voters were leaning toward backing Trump. They described him as “controlled,” “poised,” and “surprisingly presidential,” while Biden was thought of as “vague,” “elusive,” and “defensive.” 

If a Biden-friendly pollster, backed by his latest focus group, is publicly opening the door to a potential Trump victory, the election gurus may not be as confident in their figures as they let on.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is another one of these gurus, and his predictions are taken seriously in Washington. Right now, Silver gives Biden an 87 percent chance of winning. Yet the nation’s premier pollster has also been hedging his bets. On the same day that he bumped Biden’s chances up to 87 percent, Silver took to Twitter to remind his followers that “Trump still does have a nontrivial chance.”

“There’s still some time left,” he continued. “Tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong… and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties.”

The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris is similarly all-in on Biden, giving the Democrat a 92 percent chance of winning on November 3. Morris is confident in his prediction, overly so according to Silver. Yet even though Morris has declared the race “very probably” over for Trump, he couldn’t help but write an article explaining exactly how he may be wrong.

I expect both Luntz and Morris know perfectly well what is going to happen on November 3. Silver is the only one who is dumb enough to insist that his model is right and it is reality that has it wrong. Watch as the polls “unexpectedly” begin to “tighten” between now and then.

All right, we’ll call it a draw

I didn’t watch the debate last night. But all you have to do is see the mainstream media calling it a draw to know who won:

Biden brought up the former New York City mayor as he lashed out at Trump for not calling out Russia and other foreign powers for election meddling. In turn, Trump claimed Biden had enriched himself with foreign dollars alongside his son.

‘I don’t make money from China, you do. I don’t make money from Ukraine, you do. I don’t make money from Russia, you do,’ Trump said. The president alluded to Tony Bobulinski, a former business partner to Hunter Biden that Trump brought to the debate as his guest. But it was only a passing mention given the drama Trump’s campaign had orchestrated just hours before the clash on stage.

Prior to the debate, Bobulinski addressed White House reporters and claimed he had proof that the former vice president was aware of his son’s business dealings with China.

‘All of the email, the emails, the horrible emails of the kind of money you were raking in,’ Trump said. ‘And Joe, you were vice president when some of this was happening. And I think you owe an explanation to the American people, why is it – somebody just had a news conference a little while ago – who was essentially supposed to work with you and your family, but what he said was damning,’ Trump continued. ‘And regardless of me I think you have to clean it up and talk to the American people. Maybe you can do it right now,’ the president added….

Trump also found a way to tie Biden’s complaints to his own primary grievance: the Russia probe. After Biden tried to tie the apparent information dumps about his son to Russian election interference, the president scoffed.

‘You mean the laptop is now the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax?’ Trump asked, incredulously.

‘The laptop is Russia, Russia, Russia? You got to be kidding. Here we go with Russia,’ he said – taking the issue that most endangered his presidency and brought on the multi-year Mueller probe and turning it on his rival.

Trump found ways to get in many of his favorite digs as the exchange went on and on. He called Hunter’s laptop the ‘laptop from hell.’ He also found ways to put Biden on his heels by asking when he pitched various plans: ‘Why didn’t you do it in the eight years’ serving with Obama. Biden could only summon a brief answer that only hinted at the GOP opposition he once had to contend with in the House. ‘We had a Republican Congress. That’s the answer,’ he said, without expanding. 

Even with the personal animosity and charges of corruption, the debate lacked much of the fire of the first encounter in Cleveland, in part due to the technological change with the microphones, and possibly due to deliberate decisions by the candidates to hold some of their impulses in check. But a comparatively calm debate that some analysts were already calling a draw denied Trump the opportunity to reset the race, with Biden leading him by 8 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average. 

Demoralization Season ends early

The polls are “tightening”, as they always do, but a little early this election cycle. Most likely this is because the Hunter Biden scandal cut the legs out from pollsters’ intention to “credibly” increasing Joe Biden’s lead to an “insurmountable” lead.

Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}-45.8{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}.

Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} to a new low-water mark of 48.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}. Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.

Of course, even this fake poll shows Trump and Biden as deadlocked. Jo Jorgenson is much more likely to receive around one percent of the vote than the 3.27 percent that the Johnson/Weld ticket did in 2016. 

“A thundering defeat”

President Trump is overtly flexing on the hapless Biden crime family

Donald Trump said Joe Biden should be jailed and boasted he is leading in early voting during his first of two campaign stops Saturday in Muskegon, Michigan.  

The president said the ‘Biden family is a criminal enterprise’ and called his rival a ‘national security risk’ and ‘corrupt politician’ as he referenced the New York Post story of Hunter Biden’s emails that raised questions about Biden’s Ukraine dealings.  

Trump also went after the state’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – who was almost kidnapped in a recent plot – sending his raucous crowd into chants calling for the two Democrats to be ‘locked up’

Despite polls showing he is trailing the Democrat, Trump claimed he was out front in early voting and told the sea of MAGA caps he was aiming for 12 years in office.  

Trump then went on to mock the idea of replacing Columbus Day with Indigenous Peoples’ Day and hit out at protesters who have gathered nationwide calling for racial equality, saying that seeing them being ‘pushed about’ by federal agents was ‘beautiful’…. 

He boasted that ‘we’re leading – early voting’ and Democrats needed to be shown a ‘thundering defeat at the ballot box.’ ‘And by the way, it seems to be happening,’ the president said.

He knows he’s going to win. And the media knows that Biden is guilty as Hell. 

Game over

Thomas Wictor calls it:

Game over.

@realDonaldTrump will be reelected in a landslide.

For the first time in American history, the Republicans have beaten the Democrats in new-voter registration.

We’re nearing the peak of demoralization season, so we should see the polls start falling back to a more modest Biden lead in the next two weeks to reflect this reality.

The Cookie polls

I reprehensively neglected to mention the all-important cookie polls in my recent Darkstream on alternative election indicators:

The real winner of the 2020 election might be this Pennsylvania bakery.

A family-owned bakery in the town of Hatboro claims that its election-themed cookies — which are currently flying off the rack — have accurately predicted the outcome of the past three presidential elections.

So far, they say sales indicate a clear leader for the 2020 race, too.

Lochel’s Bakery, located in Montgomery County just north of Philadelphia, had launched its most recent “cookie poll” about six weeks back, offering both “Trump 2020” cookies and “Biden 2020” cookies in red and blue, respectively.

“So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1,” she told Fox News on Friday morning.

The original cookie poll, in Red Wing, Minnesota, concurs:

Opinions be what they may, but the only acceptable answer here comes piled high with red, white, and blue frosting, and can be found in Red Wing. Each costs $4, and will be counted as a vote for president. Sort of.

Every four years, Hanisch Bakery and Coffee Shop celebrates democracy in the sweetest way possible: by hosting the Presidential Cookie Poll. “It’s a fun election poll that just happens to be pretty darn accurate for some reason,” says Bill Hanisch, the establishment’s chief manager and owner.

In the 1920s, the bakery was called Quandt’s. It’s undergone several ownership and name changes since then, but Hanisch is sure the Braschler family conceived of the cookie poll we recognize today during the Mondale-Reagan election because he worked under them starting when he was 15 years old. Though he’s not certain why the poll first ran back in 1984, the current owner bets it was a simple move to drum up business.

When Hanisch bought the bakery in 2007, he understood he would also become ringmaster for a unique political circus that’s getting more unwieldy each election cycle. So far this year, Trump’s cookies have outsold Biden’s by a mile. 

The cookies have spoken. Trumpslide 2020.